Market Cycle Timing (MCT)

What is the MCT?

MCT stands for Market Cycle Timing. The MCT is a score out of 100 for the likelihood that a market has just entered a new growth phase.

Property markets rarely grow gradually following a smooth stereo-typical exponential curve as shown below.

Property markets usually have a relatively short surge of growth followed by a longer period of relatively flat growth.

The longer the period of below average growth, the more likely the following surge will be above average and therefore the higher the MCT will be.

However, the MCT also considers recent growth and it does so in the opposite direction. The worse the very recent growth is, the lower the MCT score will be.

So the MCT looks for both low long term growth AND high recent growth. This means the MCT is rigged to score markets highly if they have just entered their next growth surge.

Why is the MCT important?

The MCT can be used to time entry into a market. But it can also protect investors from entering a market that may have already reached its peak for a long while.

The MCT is one of the most vital statistics incorporated into the DSR+.

Is the MCT reliable?

The MCT is heavily dependent on having accurate historical values. Long term growth is not so susceptible to anomalies since it covers such a long period. So this aspect of the MCT is usually reliable. However, a more likely problem is if there is recent volatility in prices, this may give a less accurate figure. Check recent price changes closely to insure you read the MCT correctly.