API vs DSR top 100 - September 2010

Australian Property Investor magazine (API) consulted with industry experts to come up with a list of the top 100 suburbs primed for growth. They published this "Hot 100" in their September 2010 issue. This page compares the performance of the API top 100 against the DSR top 100 for the same period.


Timing

There is about a 2 month gap between the receipt of top picks by the magazine from experts and the date the magazines are published. The magazine's issue month is also in advance of this date by one more month. So the data appearing in the issue called "September" would have been provided in June.


And the winner was...

The average growth for all the markets appearing in the API top 100 from June 2010 to April 2015 (time of writing) was 14.51%.

In comparison, the top 100 property markets in June 2010 as ranked using the DSR had an average growth for the same period of 18.61%. That's over 4% more capital growth than the average expert's pick.


How the race unfolded

Median calculations jump up and down a bit from month to month. Sometimes this is from volatility, other times from statistical anomaly.

So publications of performance results are often timed carefully to coincide with a positive month for the predictor. Not here at DSR data. You can see the entire race in the following chart.



Note that the entire country's real estate market was not having a good time over 2011 and 2012. Some markets had major losses and other market losses were not so severe.


But wait, there's more

The top ten by DSR, as opposed to the top hundred, had an average growth slightly higher of 18.93%. That's over 4% more capital growth than the average expert's pick.


Putting it in context

An extra 4% growth on a $300,000 property is worth $12,000. An extra 4% growth on a $500,000 property is worth $20,000. It just goes to show how valuable good data is.


But you can do better

In compiling the top 100 by DSR, no research was performed to refine the list any further. This list was pulled straight out of the database, ordered by DSR from highest to lowest. That means an investor could grab the top 10 by DSR, perform more research to refine the list further, and get even better returns.

Also, note that this is the top markets by basic DSR, not by DSR+ which outperforms the basic DSR. That means an investor could grab the top 10 by DSR+ and refine the list to get even better growth.


Hard to believe?

You can verify the results of the API top 100 by obtaining issue 115 dated September 2010. You'll need to obtain historical price data for these suburbs for June 2010 and for the time of writing, April 2015.

The top 100 DSR markets were published in the same issue of API mag and appear on page 127. You'll need historical price data for these property markets for June 2010 and for the time of writing, April 2015.


DSR top 100 as at June 2010

Post code Suburb Property type
2617 KALEEN Houses
2234 BANGOR Houses
3153 BAYSWATER Units
3153 BAYSWATER NORTH Units
3138 MOOROOLBARK Units
3140 LILYDALE Units
2615 FLYNN Houses
3152 WANTIRNA SOUTH Units
3115 WONGA PARK Units
3154 THE BASIN Units
3158 UPWEY Units
3765 MONTROSE Units
3766 KALORAMA Units
3788 OLINDA Units
3791 KALLISTA Units
3133 VERMONT SOUTH Units
3159 SELBY Units
3116 CHIRNSIDE PARK Houses
2147 KINGS LANGLEY Houses
2079 MOUNT COLAH Houses
3180 KNOXFIELD Houses
3153 BAYSWATER Houses
3153 BAYSWATER NORTH Houses
3136 CROYDON HILLS Houses
3154 THE BASIN Houses
2615 HIGGINS Houses
3156 UPPER FERNTREE GULLY Houses
3082 MILL PARK Units
2614 SCULLIN Houses
3170 MULGRAVE Units
3180 KNOXFIELD Units
3116 CHIRNSIDE PARK Units
3137 KILSYTH Units
3136 CROYDON NORTH Units
3793 MONBULK Units
3137 KILSYTH SOUTH Units
3782 EMERALD Units
3976 HAMPTON PARK Houses
2122 MARSFIELD Units
2218 ALLAWAH Units
2218 CARLTON Units
2226 JANNALI Houses
3198 SEAFORD Units
2219 DOLLS POINT Units
3088 BRIAR HILL Houses
3095 ELTHAM NORTH Houses
3427 DIGGERS REST Houses
2146 OLD TOONGABBIE Houses
2226 COMO Houses
2217 RAMSGATE BEACH Units
3131 FOREST HILL Units
2233 HEATHCOTE Houses
3136 CROYDON SOUTH Houses
3152 WANTIRNA Units
6027 HEATHRIDGE Houses
3196 CHELSEA Units
2615 FLOREY Houses
2042 ENMORE Units
3765 MONTROSE Houses
3133 VERMONT Units
3137 KILSYTH SOUTH Houses
2615 HOLT Houses
3089 DIAMOND CREEK Units
3114 PARK ORCHARDS Units
3179 SCORESBY Units
3786 FERNY CREEK Units
2615 FRASER Houses
3136 CROYDON HILLS Units
3156 LYSTERFIELD Units
3156 UPPER FERNTREE GULLY Units
3160 BELGRAVE Units
3082 MILL PARK Houses
3155 BORONIA Houses
3170 MULGRAVE Houses
2085 BELROSE Houses
2162 SEFTON Houses
2141 BERALA Units
2147 SEVEN HILLS Houses
7009 MOONAH Houses
3156 FERNTREE GULLY Houses
3067 ABBOTSFORD Units
2214 MILPERRA Houses
2763 ACACIA GARDENS Houses
2904 MONASH Houses
2148 PROSPECT Houses
3084 VIEWBANK Houses
2066 LANE COVE NORTH Units
5158 SHEIDOW PARK Houses
3216 GROVEDALE Houses
3155 BORONIA Units
2905 ISABELLA PLAINS Houses
3137 KILSYTH Houses
2145 CONSTITUTION HILL Houses
7009 LUTANA Houses
3196 CHELSEA HEIGHTS Houses
2605 CURTIN Houses
6024 WARWICK Houses
3151 BURWOOD EAST Units
2227 GYMEA Units
3135 HEATHMONT Units